Have free COVID-19 tests left us in the dark?

Back in December 2021, President Biden announced that the federal government would give out 1 billion free COVID-19 tests. On January 14, the administration announced that in a few days, a website would launch where individuals could request tests shipped to their homes.

At the time, the US had recorded just under 761 million COVID-19 tests, so the federal government would give away more tests than we recorded throughout the pandemic.

On March 7, President Biden announced that the second round of tests was available for ordering.

On May 17, the administration announced that it had already doled out over 350 million tests to over 70 million households and that the third round of tests was available. The US had recorded just over 890 million COVID-19 tests on that date.

Between January 14, 2022, and May 17, 2022, the US recorded the results of just under 130 million tests while shipping out 350 million test kits. Most at-home kits don’t get recorded.

There’s no way of knowing how many free test kits people use (nor those purchased by individuals). There’s no way of knowing how many at-home kits had positive results. We do know that nearly three times as many free kits went out between January and May and that individuals purchased additional tests during that time.

It’s also worth noting that the January 14 announcement came as the Omicron wave peaked, and that case totals have barely come within 1/8 of that peak since the shipments began.

I can’t tell you how much this is muting case totals, but I believe that a government that wanted to be transparent about our circumstances wouldn’t have left data as an afterthought.

Throughout the pandemic, there has been a gap between data and reality, and the current gap is larger by choice. For my part, I’ll assume that it’s wide and growing until we make meaningful efforts to reduce it.

Closing thought

I don’t want to discourage anyone from using the free tests. (You can order them here.) They’re not as sensitive as PCR tests, but they give us a convenient layer of defense against the virus. I’d just ask that you report the results if you use them. Rather than provide a convenient portal for doing so, the CDC requests that you do so via your healthcare provider.

Update: Within an hour of posting this, a news report claimed that cases may currently be 7x the official totals. I did some digging and found that the CDC’s Dr. Robert Redfield recently claimed, “Our best estimate right now is that for every case that's reported, there actually are 10 other infections.” So there’s that.

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