How bad is it, doc?

David Frum recently wrote about a war-gaming exercise based on the upcoming US elections. The effort looked at potential outcomes, and the sorts of options that would be available should ‘problems’ arise. Frum’s post touched on two key areas: what he believed our existing systems could control (in his words, the ‘good news’) and what he feared might not go well.

MSNBC’s Lawrence O’Donnell shared a similar sentiment.

There are numerous examples of such perspectives. I find them unconvincing as it seems they’re conflating two very different things: Trump's ability to get by on bluster, and the system's ability to function as designed. The former seems self-evident. His choices have helped the coronavirus go from waning during the lockdown period to being out of control. Over 150,000 people are dead, and millions of others will spend the coming years and decades worrying and learning about possible aftereffects. The economy took a bigger hit than ever before thanks partly to his disastrous approach to handling the pandemic.

We have seemingly found ourselves with the worst possible president at the worst possible time. To disagree with this seems to necessitate willful delusion.

I don’t understand what these men have seen throughout thispresidency that gives them confidence that our existing systems are fit for purpose and ready for what might come next, and I sure don’t share their outlook. Do they think we can count on congress to step in should they be called on to do so after watching Senate Republicans save him from impeachment? What about the tilted Supreme Court? O’Donnell suggested that the Secret Service would save us, but do you think Trump hasn’t thought through who he expects to be loyal in that group? (He removed the head of a secret service in part of a move that was referred to as “a near-systematic purge” at DHS last year.)

As for the military, my gut tells me they would not support a coup, but is there anything systemic in place that would keep them from doing so?

In a recent interview, former Obama advisor David Axelrod claimed, “There’s a protocol for everything.” He then noted drills the administration went through to prepare for things like terrorist or nuclear attacks, before adding that he “honestly never anticipated a pandemic situation like the one the White House is facing now.” The former presidential advisor who thinks there’s a plan for everything never thought of the possibility of a pandemic. I wonder if there’s a plan for dealing with a president who’s trying to go dictator?

Trump's loyal supporters are the wild card in this scenario. What might they do if called on to protect their leader? Josh Marshall from TPM believes Trump will lose and leave office in January, but he offered a frightening scenario that fits the effort to reduce and discredit mail-in votes.

Historian Nils Gilman took part in the same exercise as Frum and his assessment built on Marshall’s concern. As Gilman put it, “we are facing an ‘election season,’ not an ‘Election Day.’” He also noted the unprecedented nature of this election, given the ongoing pandemic in which provisional, absentee, and mail-in ballots could take days to count. Gilman added that Democrats are expected to receive about 60% of such votes, while Republicans would expect around 33%, thus offering a potential ‘blue shift’ in vote totals.

Gilman’s words brought back memories of hanging chads and the uncertainty around Florida’s recount following the 2000 election in which George W. Bush eventually defeated Al Gore. If you lived through those uneasy days, what do you think the time from early November to late January might be like for this go around?

And Gilman’s overall assessment of the wargaming exercise seemed far less optimistic than Frum’s.

Chase that thought down with this chart of US gun sales.

Source

I’ll leave you with a bit of hope from Gilman.

The point of this writing is to reach people and help affect change. With that in mind, can you help me get the word out?

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